Gold and Silver Rise to Meet Expectations
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In recent financial updates, Thursday brought noteworthy fluctuations, particularly in gold tradingAs the US market opened, gold experienced a slight rise, affirming the bullish sentiment held by tradersEven an adverse initial jobless claims report, which typically could have pressured the market, failed to deter this upward trendGold peaked at 2639, nearly achieving the week's bullish target of 2640. Analysts are now looking toward Friday's session with optimism, anticipating a continuation towards a 2655 highSilver also reflected a positive trend, creeping up to 29.8, although its gains were quite modest compared to gold; nevertheless, the expectations remain bullish as many believe a rise is just a matter of timeMeanwhile, crude oil surged to 70.5, but the consistent resistance at 71 formed a barrier to any significant momentum, leading to expectations of a consolidating market rather than a sustained rise.
The recent report indicating a drop in the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits to a one-month low aligns with the current narrative of a cooling yet healthy labor market
This report adds confidence during this season, often referred to as the “Santa Claus Rally,” where markets typically see a boost from year-end bonuses and low trading volumesKey indicators to monitor on the horizon include the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the December monetary policy meeting, as well as preliminary monthly wholesale inventory figures from the US and industrial data from China.
The correlation between the US dollar and gold has frequently been observed this yearPresently, the dollar has reached a summit near 108, while gold maintains its steady yet modest increaseHowever, traders should brace for expected fluctuations, as any pullback from the dollar will naturally influence gold pricing as wellDespite the uptick seen on Thursday, which pushed gold above 2639 despite the earlier negative jobless data, traders are urged to exercise caution
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The broader perspective indicates a clear bullish outlook on gold, yet the terrain is uneven as fluctuations appear inevitable, as evident in Thursday's trading wherein gold saw a drop to 2625 before rallying backThis showcases the importance of a measured approach in tradingTechnical analysis indicates that the daily bullish structure is not near completion, with an eye on the prior high of 2655. If the final trading days of December reflect significant gains, there may be potential moves towards the 2700 mark, though this remains uncertain.
Turning to the silver market, Thursday saw it achieve heights near 29.8. Although the upward trend is discernible, the overall bullish potential appears limited for nowRemaining steadfast in previously established positions at 29 could be prudent, with a target of 30.5 this weekShould this level be broken firmly, traders may seek to capitalize on further upward momentum
The resistance remains visible at 31.5, while Friday's end-of-day outlook maintains its focus on 30.5.
Crude oil presented notable movements as wellThursday underscored a bullish trajectory; however, the persistent resistance at the 71 mark is crucial for establishing a robust trendMarkets are advised to keep a bullish view but stay vigilant for any signs of a breakthrough above 71, which could pivot to a forecasted target in the 73 vicinityBased on the prior day’s peaks, crude is now resting around 69.6, reinforcing the view of a channel-bound trading environment, with upper resistance around 70.5 and lower support at 68.5. Traders should strategically engage with trades while respecting this bandwidth for effective high-risk low-reward dealings.
In the realm of futures, the performance of the RTF (Rongtong Jin) has shown promising movement, nearing the target mark of 620. Earlier positions established at 610 and 614 are on the verge of fruition
It’s imperative to note that while the overarching bullish trend is apparent, traders should avoid overcommitting to expectations of dramatic surgesBoth 620 and 625 remain pragmatic target levelsUpon reaching 620, a prudent strategy would involve waiting for a retracement to capitalize on shorter-term positions, aiming for multiple gains as trends shift.
In another segment, fuels have recently shown an optimistic trend around the 2900 regionThe bullish dynamic remains clear, although focus shifts to determining optimal entry pointsThe previous defensive line was at 2950, whilst the current setting sees it at 3000. Having broken through the initial target of 3200 leads to future aspirations towards a high of 3400. Those currently holding positions should stay engaged, while less proactive traders may wait for a downturn before entering.
As for the soda ash futures, the past week represented limited volatility, with minor fluctuations and an overall weaker stance
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